A massive chunk of Australia wants to pull the lever for Pauline Hanson, but almost nobody actually likes her playbook.
That is the bizarre reality exposed by the latest Guardian Essential poll. We are seeing a fascinating contradiction in federal politics. Voters are furious with the major parties, yet they completely recoil when they read the fine print of the radical alternative they claim to want. Read more on a connected topic: this related article.
The headline numbers show a minor reality check for One Nation. The party's primary vote slipped two points, dropping to 26% from last month’s peak of 28%. Meanwhile, Labor ticked up a point to 30%, and the Coalition sat flat on 23%. It looks like a plateau. But don't look at the horse race horse numbers alone. The real gold is buried in what happens when you ask everyday people what Hanson actually plans to do to the country.
The Policy Disconnect is Massive
Australians are treating One Nation like a giant middle finger to Canberra, but they don't want that finger anywhere near the steering wheel. Further journalism by Reuters delves into similar views on the subject.
Look at the actual policy feedback from the Essential survey of 1,017 voters. Hanson has been on a high-profile media blitz, including a highly publicised National Press Club address. But the more people hear her specific ideas, the faster they back away.
- Shutting down SBS? Only 11% support it.
- Privatising the ABC? Just 15% think it's a good idea.
- Ditching multiculturalism for a monoculture? Only 20% are on board.
- Leaving the United Nations? Down to 18%.
- Rewriting workplace laws to favor bosses? A measly 18%.
This is a complete rejection of her core platform. It turns out that while voters are angry about inflation, housing, and the cost of living, they quite like public broadcasters, multicultural communities, and basic workplace protections.
The Fear of the Unskilled Maverick
There is a huge difference between liking a populist firebrand on TikTok and trusting them to manage an economy during a global downturn.
The poll looked closely at the voters who say they are open to voting for One Nation—a group that shockingly represents more than half the country (52% combined definite or considering). When these precise voters were pushed on their concerns, the anxiety boiled over. A full 51% admitted they are genuinely worried the party simply doesn't have a team of skilled people capable of running Australia.
Then there is the billionaire problem. Half of the respondents expressed serious concern about Hanson's incredibly close ties to mining magnate Gina Rinehart and her links to the American MAGA movement. For decades, Hanson positioned herself as the warrior for the battling working-class Aussie. But her financial and political alignment with ultra-wealthy elites is starting to look hypocritical to the average voter.
People want to punish the major parties. They just don't want to break the country in the process.
Shifting Ground on Social Issues
The survey also dropped a quiet bombshell on social policy, capturing a distinct shift in how Australians view abortion.
Only 29% of Australians now believe abortion should be legal in all cases. That is a sharp 12-point drop from late 2024. While a broad majority (72%) still think it should be legal in some or most circumstances, the absolute support has eroded. Hanson's proposal to ban abortion past 20 weeks managed to grab 26% support, which is higher than most of her cultural policies but still represents a minority view.
What we are seeing isn't a sudden surge in right-wing radicalism. It is deep, pervasive exhaustion.
Moving Past the Protest Vote
If you are trying to read the political tea leaves for the next federal election, stop fixating on the protest party hype and focus on structural mechanics.
The major parties can win these voters back, but it won't happen by shouting "racist" at the television. It will happen by tackling immigration pressures, addressing the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and making people feel heard.
The next steps for sensible political observers are clear. Look past the noisy press club speeches and track the policy friction. Watch whether the Coalition under Angus Taylor can successfully capture the economic anxieties of the "Hanson-curious" without adopting her toxic, unpopular cultural warfare. The data proves the door is wide open for a credible alternative.
This television broadcast segment provides a quick visual breakdown of the sudden shift in polling data and public sentiment surrounding Pauline Hanson's party.
